Within ±4% on shipped moves · trailing 9 brands

Run the move
before you make it.

Type a decision. NuMoon plays it out on your real data — margin, churn, LTV, attribution — and tells you exactly where you’d land in 30, 60, or 90 days. Not benchmarks. Your actual cohorts.

Your scenario
Or pick a preset
scenario · Raise tier-2 prices 10%
Ship
now
actual · 60d trailing forecast · within ±4%
MRR Δ · 30d
+$14,200
Churn Δ
+2.1%
Margin Δ
+$9,100
Confidence
87%
01 · Grounded

Your numbers.
Not benchmarks.

Every forecast runs on your actual cohorts, your actual margins, your actual attribution windows. No “industry average” hand-waves.

02 · Honest

Trailing ±4%.
Published quarterly.

NuMoon publishes its forecast accuracy in your dashboard every quarter. The brain learns from misses and gets sharper week over week.

03 · Reversible

Guardrails on
every shipped move.

A/B at 30% traffic. 14-day rollback window. NuMoon refuses moves outside the brand-specific risk envelope automatically.

The receipts · 9 brands · 142 shipped moves

Predicted vs. actual.
Every move. Every brand.

trailing 90d median error
±3.4%
moves shipped · 9 brands
142
within forecast band
88%
Move
Module
Window
Predicted
Actual
Δ
Pause Meta camp #4 · reallocBrand-2 · DTC apparel
marketing
30d
+$9,820
+$10,140
+3.3%
Renegotiate 3PL tier-2Brand-7 · home goods
ops
90d
+$15,000
+$14,200
−5.3%
Raise tier-2 pricing +10%Brand-1 · subscription
product
60d
+$14,200
+$13,860
−2.4%
Apollo Vol-3 · 312 leadsBrand-4 · B2B SaaS
sales
30d
+$8,900
+$9,420
+5.8%
Sweep $48k → T-BillsBrand-3 · agency
cash
90d
+$1,420
+$1,448
+2.0%
Klaviyo abandon-2 re-armBrand-2 · DTC apparel
marketing
14d
+$1,400
+$1,540
+10.0%
Reorder SKU #44 · air bridgeBrand-5 · DTC food
ops
30d
+$8,900
+$8,170
−8.2%
Hire 1 PT CS rep · draftedBrand-9 · marketplace
ops
60d
−$1,200
−$1,420
+18.3%
↓ partial ledger · last 8 of 142 shipped moves. Full audit log lives in your dashboard, updated daily.See your own ledger
Sharper every week · v2.41 → v2.42 ship

The brain learns
from every miss.

Every reject signals “wrong move.” Every approve-then-revert signals “right shape, wrong magnitude.” Every approve-and-hold signals “trust this pattern.” The brain re-trains weekly on your trust signals and gets sharper at predicting moves you would approve.

v2.4012 weeks ago

Forecast band ±6.2%

Cold-start baseline. Cohort modeling only. Reject signals not yet weighted into priors.

67 moves shipped82% inside band
v2.41current · this week

Forecast band ±3.4%

Reject signals re-shape risk envelope per brand. Attribution-drift correction lifted accuracy by 2.1 pts.

142 moves shipped88% inside band
v2.42ships next Tue · forecast

Forecast band ±2.8%

New: revert-but-approve signal. Brain now distinguishes magnitude mistakes from directional ones — sharpens magnitude predictions.

est. lift +0.6 ptsshipping Tue 09:00 PT
Free · no login · ~4 minutes

Try the simulator.

Connect two sources. Type one scenario. See where it lands before you commit a dollar.